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India's pledge to reach the net-zero emission target by 2070 may not have enthralled climate enthusiasts, but studies have discovered that the world is on course for global average temperatures to now peak at 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial levels instead of the earlier 2 degrees, by the end of the century – assuming all national carbon reduction and net-zero pledges are delivered.
The new number is still a long way from the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, which is the aim of COP26 Summit, but researchers believe it makes a useful difference.
Researchers at Climate Resource have run the numbers through their IPCC AR6 WG1-consistent climate emulator Magicc - which results in a best-estimate projection of a 1.9C peak warming this century.
For the first time in history, the aggregate effect of the combined pledges by 194 countries might bring the world to below 2C warming with more than a 50% chance, it said in a briefing note.
Climate Resource said that India's newly announced climate targets, including an ultimate goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2070, is one of the key drivers of the new projections. In addition to that, China's pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 – formalized under the Paris Agreement process just last week – also helped to shift the temperature dial.
Last week, the UN's analysis projected a temperature rise of 2.2C if all nations keep on track to achieve their net-zero goals.
An increase in the world's temperature by two degrees Celsius would subject a third of the world's population to extreme heat regularly, causing health problems and increasing heat-related deaths. Almost all warm-water coral reefs would be lost, and the Arctic Sea ice would melt entirely at least once per decade, wreaking havoc on the species and communities who rely on it.
The consequences would be considerable but less severe, at 1.5°C, which is why limiting every fraction of warming is essential.
To keep within 1.5 degrees Celsius, we must nearly eliminate carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases, chopping down forests, and some industrial activities by mid-century.
The latest study does limit warming to 1.9 degrees--which isn't still enough--and is only possible if countries stick to their targets.
Inputs from The Guardian
Picture Credits: Climate Resource