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Buyers will face home price increases nationally (+5.4%) and in all of the 100 largest markets in 2023, but those who can afford to persist will find more inventory than last year (+22.8%)
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Nov. 30, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Amid higher mortgage rates and budgets squeezed by inflation, homebuyers looking for affordability in 2023 will find that prices aren't coming down, according to the Realtor.com® 2023 Housing Forecast released today. Instead, with the housing market beginning a gradual adjustment that could last through 2025, what next year will offer buyers is less competition for a growing number of for-sale homes.
Overall in 2023,1 Realtor.com® forecasts that buyers and sellers can expect:
"Compared to the wild ride of the past two years, 2023 will be a slower-paced housing market, which means drastic shifts like price declines may not happen as quickly as some have anticipated. It will be a challenging year for both buyers and sellers, but an important one in setting the stage for home sales to return to a sustainable pace over the next two to three years," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com®. "With mortgage rates continuing to climb as the Fed navigates the economy to a soft-ish landing, higher costs will lead to fewer closings, but that doesn't mean homebuying will stop entirely in 2023. Americans who are determined to make a move will find that staying up-to-date on the market, flexibility, creativity and a healthy dose of patience will go a long way toward success in the year ahead."
Key 2023 housing trends and wildcards
"Of the many factors that are expected to affect the housing market in 2023, affordability tops the list of issues most likely to make or break buyers' plans. Still, our forecast does offer promise for home shoppers who are well-prepared. Tools like Realtor.com®'s Buying Power can help you understand how various rate changes and options impact your budget, and seamlessly integrate into the home search experience to help you stay on track financially," Hale added.
2023 Forecasted Housing Metrics & Historical Data – National
Metric (Full-Year
Avg.)
2023 Realtor.com® Forecast
2022 Realtor.com® Expectations
2021 Historical
Data
2013-2019
Historical Average
Mortgage Rates
7.4% (avg.);
7.1% (year-end)
5.5% (avg.);
7.5% (year-end)
Avg. 3.0%
Avg. 4.0%
Existing Home Median Sales Price
+5.4% year-over-year
+10.2% year-over-year
+17.0% year-over-year
+6.4% year-over-year
Existing Home Sales
-14.1% year-over-year
(to 4.53 million)
-13.8% year-over-year (to 5.28 million)
8.5% year-over-year (to 6.12 million)
2.0% year-over-year (to 5.27 million)
Existing Home For-Sale Inventory
+22.8% year-over-year
+4.0% year-over-year
-19.4% year-over-year
-3.5% year-over-year
Single-Family Housing Starts
-5.4% year-over-year
-9.6% year-over-year
1.1 million
0.8 million
Homeownership Rate
65.7% of U.S. households
65.8% of U.S. households
65.5% of U.S. households
64.2% of U.S. households
Rental Price
+6.3% year-over-year
+7.7% year-over-year
+10.0% year-over-year
+5.0% year-over-year
2023 Forecasted Housing Metrics – 100 Largest U.S. Metros (in alphabetical order)
Metro
Forecasted 2023 Sales
Change (% Y/Y)
Forecasted 2023 Price
Change (% Y/Y)
-0.8 %
3.8 %
3.0 %
4.7 %
-3.0 %
5.3 %
1.9 %
4.7 %
-0.3 %
4.7 %
6.2 %
5.7 %
-6.6 %
3.0 %
-7.5 %
2.0 %
4.9 %
5.5 %
-5.1 %
7.1 %
-0.4 %
7.3 %
-10.9 %
8.7 %
-0.6 %
9.5 %
-6.5 %
5.9 %
6.3 %
6.0 %
-5.9 %
0.1 %
-1.6 %
4.6 %
-0.3 %
5.5 %
2.9 %
8.2 %
-2.1 %
3.1 %
3.0 %
6.1 %
2.7 %
4.3 %
-3.5 %
7.0 %
7.7 %
3.6 %
4.6 %
5.0 %
3.1 %
2.2 %
2.8 %
5.6 %
-7.9 %
4.8 %
-1.9 %
4.2 %
4.1 %
6.3 %
0.7 %
6.2 %
0.7 %
5.9 %
8.9 %
5.4 %
-13.7 %
2.2 %
1.6 %
10.0 %
2.2 %
6.2 %
0.4 %
4.9 %
4.7 %
3.0 %
6.5 %
8.5 %
2.9 %
4.5 %
-1.0 %
7.8 %
-3.0 %
4.6 %
1.9 %
7.2 %
-1.0 %
7.1 %
-5.0 %
1.6 %
3.1 %
4.4 %
-10.9 %
2.3 %
6.2 %
4.6 %
-15.8 %
3.2 %
5.2 %
8.4 %
-5.0 %
9.0 %
-0.5 %
4.8 %
2.5 %
6.9 %
-2.0 %
3.4 %
0.4 %
7.7 %
-0.8 %
5.6 %
-3.4 %
5.0 %
0.0 %
3.5 %
-0.8 %
6.3 %
1.8 %
5.0 %
-28.7 %
3.2 %
-11.0 %
6.4 %
4.2 %
2.6 %
4.7 %
4.8 %
-8.5 %
2.9 %
-29.1 %
1.7 %
-18.3 %
2.8 %
0.6 %
5.7 %
-18.4 %
2.6 %
4.2 %
5.4 %
-4.6 %
10.3 %
-10.7 %
3.9 %
-7.0 %
9.8 %
-7.3 %
5.4 %
0.1 %
4.8 %
-7.2 %
1.5 %
1.3 %
5.3 %
-12.1 %
3.7 %
-0.4 %
4.6 %
-7.6 %
5.8 %
2.5 %
4.6 %
-27.3 %
3.6 %
-13.3 %
3.3 %
-28.8 %
2.7 %
0.0 %
5.8 %
-10.3 %
6.8 %
-6.1 %
9.6 %
0.7 %
8.9 %
-8.6 %
6.4 %
0.9 %
6.1 %
-15.6 %
3.9 %
4.2 %
6.7 %
-14.7 %
4.5 %
1.8 %
4.6 %
-6.6 %
1.9 %
3.9 %
5.1 %
-3.5 %
5.0 %
-4.3 %
7.0 %
2.4 %
5.8 %
2.5 %
10.6 %
Methodology
Realtor.com®'s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables in the year ahead.
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com ® .
Media Contact
press@realtor.com
1 Metrics reflect the forecasted 2023 average, unless otherwise noted.
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SOURCE Realtor.com