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WASHINGTON (AP) — This time, New Hampshire didn't surprise.
Instead, its famously fickle voters stuck to the script of delivering a resounding ratification of the front-runner, Donald Trump, the former president. His victory over Nikki Haley was of scope that it cemented his hold on core Republican voters and substantially reduced the chances of any challenger overtaking him.
Never before has a presidential candidate won the first two contests on the primary nomination calendar — as Trump has now done — and failed to emerge as the party’s general election nominee, substantially increasing the already quite likely prospect of a rematch between him and President Joe Biden.
New Hampshire seemed like a state that Trump could lose.
The state’s moderate tradition, the participation of independents, a huge advertising disparity and even a popular governor were all working against the former president.
He overcame all of that, with relative ease, putting himself on a glide path to a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination that can likely be stopped at this point only by an unprecedented collapse or unforeseen external circumstances.
His base, immovable so far, has given him a structural advantage that few non-incumbents have ever had. He doesn’t need to persuade any new voters to win the nomination, he simply needs to ensure his people turned out. According to AP VoteCast, only about half of New Hampshire Republican voters identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. And nearly half disagree with Trump’s big lie that the 2020 was stolen.
He won anyway.
Trump may be an unstoppable force in the primary campaign, but Tuesday’s vote offered evidence that he may have a more difficult time in the general election this fall.
About half of New Hampshire Republican primary voters are very or somewhat concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, according to AP VoteCast. Only about one-third say the same about Haley.
A significant number of voters in the Republican primary — about one-third — also believe that Trump broke the law either in his alleged attempt to interfere in the vote count in the 2020 presidential election, his role in what happened at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, or the classified documents found at his Florida home after he left the White House.
Such legal troubles helped unify core Republican voters behind his candidacy in recent months, but it’s hard to imagine those issues will be an asset with the much broader set of general election voters.
Trump is facing 91 felony counts across four criminal trials. And his court schedule is set up to ensure that voters won’t be able to forget about the legal drama, even if they want to. The federal trial over Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election is tentatively set to begin on March 4, the day before Super Tuesday.
For months, Haley and former Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, offered only muted criticism of the former president, wary of his popularity with the GOP base.
Each was more frontal in attacking him as voting drew nearer, especially Haley in the closing days before New Hampshire. It was too late to help DeSantis, who suspended his campaign Sunday after finishing a distant second in Iowa. This weekend, Haley drew attention to the 77-year-old former president seeming to confuse her and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, directly taking on his mental fitness in ways she’d only vaguely alluded to before.
The punches didn't land. At the same time, Haley's approach suggested there was another way to challenge Trump. But a road not taken until the last minute remains a road not taken.