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AP VoteCast: What the first contests tell us about the Trump and Biden coalitions

With momentum from this month’s presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden and Donald Trump appear poised to give the nation a sequel to the 2020 election — but even strong victories this week for both men highlighted weak spots for each of them

By JOSH BOAK and LINLEY SANDERS
Published - Jan 25, 2024, 12:10 PM ET
Last Updated - Jan 25, 2024, 12:10 PM EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — Based on the momentum from this month's presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden and Donald Trump appear poised to give the nation a sequel to the 2020 election — but even strong victories this week for both men revealed weak spots for each.

Biden, the current president, has enjoyed the benefit of a broad and diverse Democratic coalition. Yet the breadth also gives his coalition a brittleness, with differences over the conflict in the Middle East and immigration possibly splitting the voter bloc.

At stake is not just control of the presidency, but how the world’s wealthiest and most militarily powerful nation sees itself. The divides in the population have set a course for an uncertain future, one in which a group of voters worn down by the pandemic and political dysfunction may well need to choose between greatly diverging paths – again.

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