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Super Bowl How We Got Here Football
FILE -Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs against Miami Dolphins defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah (91) during an NFL wild-card playoff football game Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024 in Kansas City, Mo. There are a variety of ways a game can change, and that’s been evident in the games that led to this week’s Super Bowl matchup between Kansas City and San Francisco.(AP Photo/Ed Zurga, File)

Sneed's forced fumble, McCaffrey's touchdown among the plays that helped Chiefs, 49ers keep going

They're the plays that shaped this year's postseason

By NOAH TRISTER
Published - Feb 09, 2024, 11:23 AM ET
Last Updated - Feb 09, 2024, 11:23 AM EST

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Maybe it will be a long touchdown pass by Patrick Mahomes, or a sack by Nick Bosa. Perhaps there will be a last-second field goal.

The key play of this year's Super Bowl between Kansas City and San Francisco could be obvious when it happens. Or it might only be clear in hindsight. If it's the latter, the win probability charts published by numberFire will be helpful in determining the most important moments. They measure how much each play impacted the competing teams' chances of winning, based on score, time remaining, possession and team strength.

Defensive touchdowns can obviously create big swings in win probability, but there are a variety of ways a game can change, and that's been evident in the games that led to this week's Super Bowl matchup.

Here are the plays — one for each game — that have shaped this year's postseason:

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