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WASHINGTON (AP) — The picture of the presidential race has hardly been cloudy for some time, even if it is one that most voters say they don't want to see.
On not-so-Super Tuesday, there were few surprises. It became ever clearer President Joe Biden was on a glidepath to the Democratic nomination that only some kind of personal catastrophe could alter. And his predecessor, Donald Trump, if he can navigate the 91 criminal charges against him and avoid any other calamity, is headed to a third Republican nomination, and a rematch against the president.
Here are some key takeaways from Super Tuesday:
Haley had little to show for Tuesday night, continuing her long streak of losing big to Trump in Republican primaries in every region of the country. Her lone victory to date came in last week’s Washington, D.C. primary.
Tuesday's defeats continued to erode the rationale for her insurgent challenge. She fell short even in states like Virginia, where the electorate, rich in college-educated suburban voters, played to her strength.
However, that doesn't mean her campaign has not been impactful. She has repeatedly said that Trump cannot win a general election, in large part because he will have trouble winning over the kind of Republicans who supported her. In a close election, even a small move of voters away from Trump could flip a state and alter the outcome.
She has also slammed Trump for an $83 million judgment against him for defaming a woman who sued him for sexual assault, and she warned the former president could transform the Republican National Committee into his own “legal slush fund.” Those are the sort of attacks that could leave a mark – and show up in Democratic ads against Trump this fall.
What has been obvious for weeks, is now beyond reasonable dispute: Biden and Trump are the overwhelming favorites to face each other in November.
They could not be more different in outlook but they seemed to be mirror images of each other during the primary season.
Trump wanted a coronation, but Haley made him fight at least somewhat to win the nomination. She’s held onto a stubborn chunk of voters, a possible indication that part of the GOP isn’t as enthusiastic about Trump as expected.
Biden, on the other hand, faces a lack of Democratic enthusiasm on paper, but not in the primary. Polls show problems for him among some of his party’s core demographics, including younger and Black voters. But Biden, who hasn’t faced any significant challengers, has won his primaries by huge margins.
It may be that one or both of these two politicians is more hobbled than it appears — but nonetheless they are the only options.
Super Tuesday is so vast that there were primaries for more than one-quarter of all seats in the House of Representatives – 115 of 438. But only eight of those seats are likely to be competitive in November.
That astonishing statistic comes from Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the Brennan Institute for Justice in New York. That means that most House candidates who won primaries Tuesday are guaranteed seats in Congress, just for securing the votes of the most motivated members of their parties.
That’s one of the greatest causes of polarization in the United States. The number of competitive seats in the House has been shrinking steadily for decades. It reflects both partisan gerrymandering and also citizens sorting themselves into increasingly partisan enclaves.
Texas is an example gerrymandering’s role. In 2018 and 2020 it was home to several competitive House races as Democrats began to gain ground in the long-red state. So Republicans who controlled the statehouse simply redrew the lines to protect Republicans, lumping large groups of Democrats together. That meant the Democrats had safe seats but fewer than they normally would have because they couldn’t threaten any GOP incumbents.
Regardless of the cause, it means that much of the battle for the House of Representatives actually ended Tuesday night.
North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson easily won the state’s Republican gubernatorial primary. His incendiary rhetoric – he’s called Hillary Clinton a “heifer” and Michelle Obama a man – ensures a hotly contested general election in the crucial swing state that could spill over into the presidential race.
He blasted the action hero movie “Black Panther” in 2018 as a “satanic Marxist production” made by a “secular Jew,” using a Yiddish slur for black people. He faced calls to resign in 2021 after likening gay and transgender people to “filth”
His brash style earned plaudits from Trump, who on Sunday called Robinson “better than Martin Luther King” while offering his “complete and total endorsement.”
But it is also likely to motivate Democrats in the state to turn out to vote come November in a race against state Attorney General Josh Stein – while raising oodles of advertising dollars to use his own words against him.
This time, Iowa wasn't first and it was a primary, not a caucus, and Biden won easily.
His victory on Tuesday came only after he was already an incumbent president – and after the state had been stripped of its prized leadoff role and voted along with the masses.