Southern Illinois GOP congressional candidates race to win the hearts, minds of Trump conservatives

CASEY, Ill. (AP) — At a local restaurant meet-and-greet, Darren Bailey led his audience in prayer, then suggested reciting the Pledge of Allegiance before failing to find an American flag in the room. The stars and stripes were spotted on Brandon Baston's T-shirt and Bailey summoned the 37-year-old Walmart employee to turn and face the audience.

Say what you want about Bailey, he's adaptable. The 57-year-old southern Illinois farmer was a rookie Republican state representative when he catapulted to statewide notoriety in 2020 by filing a lawsuit against Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker's COVID-19 restrictions. He jumped to the Senate the following year and from there bested better-financed candidates to win the 2022 GOP nomination for governor. That earned him the cherished endorsement of former President Donald Trump before losing to Pritzker in a state where Democrats have a virtual lock on power.

Now, he’s challenging a five-term Republican representative, and after talking up a repeat endorsement, he’s been forced to adapt again: Trump chose the incumbent, Rep. Mike Bost. Disappointed, Bailey now says Trump’s choice “didn’t move the needle much,” though his “grassroots movement” also trails Bost badly in the money race.

As it winds down to a March 19 primary showdown, the race could be seen as a measure of Trump's clout. Bost is a popular incumbent, but he's running in a time and place where disdain for government is white-hot. Establishment Republicans are angry their man has to face an intraparty challenge, which is the attitude Bailey argues needs to be dislodged. But it will be up to voters to decide whether adaptability and hard work are enough to overcome incumbency, tenure and an endorsement from the nation's Republican leader.