AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the drama surrounding the state’s presidential caucuses far in the rearview mirror, Iowa voters now turn to primaries on Tuesday for the narrowly divided U.S. House as well as the Republican-controlled state legislature.

One race in the 3rd Congressional District may play a decisive role in determining which party will win control of the chamber in November. Competing for the Democratic nomination are Lanon Baccam, a former U.S. Department of Agriculture official and Afghanistan war veteran, and Melissa Vine, a mental health counselor and leader of a nonprofit that supports women who have experienced trauma. They hope to unseat U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn, a first-term Republican who barely edged Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne in 2022. Nunn is unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Home to the state capital of Des Moines and much of the state’s Democratic base, the 3rd District is the most competitive of the Iowa’s four U.S. House seats. Voters there gave Republican then-President Donald Trump a slim advantage over Democratic challenger Joe Biden in 2020, 49.2% to 48.8%.

The Republican incumbents in the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts have both drawn primary challengers from their right flanks. In the 1st District in southeastern Iowa, U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces David Pautsch, an advertising executive, former Army tuba player and Gold Star father. Miller-Meeks entered the final stretch of the primary campaign with nearly $1.9 million in the bank, compared with just slightly more than $6,000 for Pautsch. By mid-May, she had spent about $1.4 million on the race, nearly 50 times hiss spending. The winner will face former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan in the 2022 general election, 53% to 47%. Voters in the 1st District preferred Trump over Biden in 2020 by a margin of about 3 percentage points.