AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan's state primaries

NEWAYGO, Mich. (AP) — While Michigan remains one of the crown jewels of the fall presidential campaign, the focus on Tuesday turns to state primaries that may play a major role in deciding control of the narrowly divided U.S. Senate and U.S. House as well as the state legislature.

Topping the list of contests is the race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced in January that she would not seek a fifth term. The Democratic primary features three-term U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and actor and Detroit small business owner Hill Harper.

Slotkin has kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands by slim margins since her first election in 2018. She won her current 7th Congressional District with just shy of 52% of the vote in 2022, her largest vote share of her three campaigns. She won a similar district in 2018 and 2020 with less than 51% of the vote.

If she wins the primary as expected, she’ll face another tough contest against the likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is looking to end his party’s 24-year drought in Michigan U.S. Senate races. The former House Intelligence Committee chairman and former CNN host launched his campaign in September and has since thinned the Republican primary field as the state’s party establishment has rallied behind him. Rogers’ remaining primary opponents include former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, best known for voting to impeach President Donald Trump and for leaving the GOP to become an independent and then a Libertarian. Also running is Sherry O’Donnell, a physician and former congressional candidate.