World Trade Organization slightly raises 2024 goods trade forecast but wary of potential setbacks
The World Trade Organization has raised its outlook for global goods trade this year slightly, but cautions that increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over economic policy pose “substantial” risks to its forecast
GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization raised its outlook for global goods trade this year slightly, but cautioned Thursday that increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over economy policy pose “substantial” risks to its forecast.
The Geneva-based WTO projected that global goods trade will increase by 2.7% this year, compared with the 2.6% it forecast in April. But it predicted growth of 3% next year, down from the 3.3% it forecast previously. Last year, the volume of world merchandise trade was down 1.1%, pushed lower by high inflation and rising interest rates.
The global trade body cautioned that “rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.”
Still, it pointed to a 2.3% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade in this year's first six months and noted that inflation had fallen far enough by mid-year for central banks to start cutting interest rates.
