AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida's special elections
Tuesday’s special elections to replace Florida’s Republican former U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz will be held in GOP strongholds
WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday’s special elections to replace Florida’s Republican former U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz will be held in two of the state’s GOP strongholds, but Democrats hope that strong fundraising in both districts is an indicator the races will be more competitive than they were in the last election just five months ago.
Control of the U.S. House is not at stake, but the outcome of the special elections could give congressional Republicans some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. Republicans hold 218 seats, the minimum needed for a majority in a fully seated House. Democrats hold 213 seats, with two additional vacant seats most recently held by Democratic lawmakers.
In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont are running to replace Gaetz. Patronis is the state’s chief financial officer. He received President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the crowded 10-person primary. Valimont is a gun control activist. She challenged Gaetz for the seat in November and received 34% of the vote.
In Waltz’s old 6th Congressional District, the candidates are Republican state Sen. Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil, a public school educator in Osceola County. Fine represents a Brevard County-based state Senate district located outside the boundaries of the Palm Coast-area U.S. House seat he hopes to fill. He won three-way primary on Jan. 28 with Trump’s endorsement.
The 1st Congressional District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state. Trump received about 68% of the district vote in 2024, slightly outperforming the 66% Gaetz received in his reelection bid.
The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years. Only Walton County went for a Democrat on one occasion since 1960, although all four voted for Democrat-turned-independent candidate George Wallace in 1968. Today, the part of Walton County that falls within the 1st District is the most reliably Republican of the four counties. Escambia is the least Republican in comparison, although Trump and Gaetz still received 59% and 57% of the county vote, respectively.
On the other side of the state, the 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.
Trump carried the district in 2024 with 65% of the vote. Waltz received about 67% of the vote in his final House reelection bid. Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where they both received about 74% of the vote. Their worst county in comparison was Volusia, where Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60%. Waltz slightly outperformed Trump in every county in the district.
Gaetz resigned from Congress after Trump nominated him to be attorney general, but he later withdrew from consideration following ongoing scrutiny over a federal sex trafficking probe and a House Ethics Committee investigation.
Waltz resigned in January to become White House national security adviser. This week, Washington was roiled by the news that Waltz had added a journalist to a Signal app group chat discussing military plans. Waltz, according to The Atlantic, appeared to have mistakenly added the journalist to a chat that included 18 senior Trump administration officials discussing planning for a strike in Yemen, but many Republicans going to the polls to replace Waltz have brushed off the story.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
The special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. ET in the 6th District and 8 p.m. ET in the 1st District.
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in the 1st and 6th Congressional District special elections. Special primaries for state Senate and state House will also be on the ballot in some parts of Florida, but the AP will not be tabulating those contests.
Any voters registered in the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts may vote in the special election in their district.
As of March 3, Florida’s 1st Congressional District had nearly 566,000 active registered voters, about 55% Republicans and 21% Democrats. The 6th District had about 559,000 active registered voters, about 49% Republicans and 26% Democrats.
Turnout in the Jan. 28 special congressional primaries was about 17% of registered Republicans in the 1st District and about 15% in the 6th District. Democrats did not have competitive primaries in those districts.
Voter participation tends to be much higher in presidential general elections than in elections held at other times. In the 2024 general election, turnout was about 76% of registered voters in the 1st District and about 80% in the 6th District.
About 73% of voters from counties that make up the 1st and 6th Districts cast their ballots before Election Day in the 2024 general election. In the 2022 general election, about 56% of voters from counties included in the 1st District voted before Election Day, compared with about 60% for voters from counties in the 6th District.
As of Thursday morning, about 53,000 ballots had been cast in the 1st District, about 52% from Republicans and about 35% from Democrats. In the 6th district, nearly 71,000 had been cast, about 45% from Republicans and 40% from Democrats.
In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in the 6th Congressional District at 7 p.m. ET, just as polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:48 p.m. ET, with about 99% of the vote counted. In the 1st Congressional District, the first batch of votes was reported at 8:01 p.m. ET, or one minute after polls closed. The election night tabulation in the 1st District ended at 1:33 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.
In the Jan. 28 special primaries, the first results in the 6th District posted at 7:02 p.m. ET. The final update of the night was available at 8:38 p.m. ET with more than 99% of the vote reporting. In the 1st District, the AP’s first vote results posted at 8 p.m. ET, with more that 99% of the vote reported by the time vote tabulation concluded for the night at 10:16 p.m. ET.
