Once called the world's most popular politician, Brazil’s Lula faces plummeting approval
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was once called the most popular politician on Earth by then-U.S. President Barack Obama
RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was once called the most popular politician on Earth by then-U.S. President Barack Obama. Those times are long gone.
Halfway through his latest four-year term, Lula's approval rating has plunged down to levels never before seen in any of this three administrations. Brazil's economy is growing and its unemployment is decreasing, but people are complaining about higher food prices and crime.
Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 24%, according to the country’s most prominent pollster Datafolha in its latest February poll, which interviewed 2,007 people across Brazil with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. That is an all-time low across his time in office from 2003 to 2010, and since he took office again in 2023. The previous record was 28% in 2005. Surveys by other firms also show a rise in discontent.
And in an apparent attempt to claw back support, the government on Thursday is hosting an event in the capital, Brasilia.
“The objective is to present the achievements of the Federal Government in the first two years,” the presidential palace said in a statement this week.
Lula’s difficulties come against a Brazilian political landscape in upheaval, with his predecessor and bitter rival former President Jair Bolsonaro due to stand trial on charges that the right-wing politician attempted a coup.
The plunge in support also comes as Lula, 79, weighs whether to run for re-election next year.
For many observers, the increase in the cost of food is a top reason for Lula’s fall in popularity. Food and drinks were nearly 8% more expensive in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to Brazil's national statistics agency.
“Food inflation has a direct impact on people’s lives,” said Carla Beni, a professor of economics at Getulio Vargas Foundation, pointing especially to the rise of the cost of meat, a staple of Brazilians' diet.
Beni said prices have soared due to the impact of climate change on crops and the strengthening of the dollar against the real.
An uptick in food prices particularly affects the poor – Lula’s historical support base. A poll by private firm Genial/Quaest released Wednesday showed a surge in disapproval among women, Black people and in Brazil’s poorer northeast. In six months, the percentage of respondents who disapprove of Lula's administration in the northeast jumped from 26% to 46%. And more women have a poor opinion of the government than they do a positive one.
“Not only are things expensive, but we’re also living in a dangerous country,” said Anderson Vianna, 45, a sales representative who lives Rio de Janeiro's low-income northern zone. “If you have your phone in hand, you can’t relax,” added the man who voted for Lula in 2002, 2006 and 2022.
To reign in food inflation, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced on March 6 that the government would reduce import taxes to zero on a series of products, including meat and coffee.
But the measure does not appear to have turned the public’s perception of the government. João Feres, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University, said Lula’s government has a myriad of public policies but “the problem is communicating the results of these policies.”
A blow to Lula came in January, when his government said it would increase oversight of financial transactions, including Brazil’s popular instant payment system PIX.
That sparked a flurry of fake news pushed by far-right politicians close to Bolsonaro, who said the government planned to impose a new tax on PIX payments. The administration denied the accusation, but ended up backtracking on the step.
“That was the first point that really damaged Lula’s image,” said Paulo Feldmann, an economist at the University of Sao Paulo.
Crime and violence are other top concerns.
“Since the end of restriction of movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it's in first place” in the ranking of Brazilians' worries, said Marcos Calliari, the country's director of pollster IPSOS.
Over the weekend, the video of an influencer inadvertently filming the moment her phone was stolen at the Lollapalooza festival in Sao Paulo went viral. Almost one in 10 Brazilians had their phone stolen between July 2023 and June 2024, according to Datafolha.
Lula has sharpened his tone against thieves in recent weeks. “We will not allow criminals to take over our country,” he said on March 19.
The justice ministry is planning to send a bill to Congress that would increase the maximum sentence for receiving and benefiting from stolen cellphones from eight to up to 12 years, it said in a statement on Friday.
Lula’s government is also preparing a wider bill on security.
To woo back voters, the government is also counting on a proposal to cut taxation for the poor. Mid-March, the administration sent a bill to Congress that seeks to exempt individuals earning up to 5000 reais (around $880) per month from income tax, up from around 2,300 reais currently.
If Congress approves the bill, observers say it could be a big win for Lula, though it's uncertain whether it will restore his popularity.
With Lula struggling in the polls and Bolsonaro barred from running until 2030, the next election is much more unpredictable than the previous one, Beni said.
Vianna, the sales representative, said he is disappointed and is not sure he would vote for Lula again. “We need a renewal.”
