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US inflation Reverses in Surprise April Up Turn Amid Easing Tariff Worries
Trump’s tariff deal with China and other major economies expected to ease Consumer Price Index further
A key U.S. inflation index rose by 0.2% in April, reversing a declining trend that had spurred hopes of the Federal Reserve interest rate cut that President Donald Trump has been demanding. Fed Chief Jerome Powell has been ruling out interest rate cuts until the inflation is closer to the target of 2%.
The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1% in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3% before seasonal adjustment.
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Shelter rose 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7% as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index. The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1% in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4% and the food away from home index rose 0.4% over the month.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in April, following a 0.1-percent increase in March. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April.
The all items index rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending April, after rising 2.4% over the 12 months ending March. The April change was the smallest 12-month increase in the all items index since February 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8% over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.7% for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 2.8% over the last year.
Food index decreases
The index for food decreased 0.1% in April, after rising 0.4% in March. The food at home index fell 0.4% over the month, the largest decline in that index since September 2020. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in April. Driven primarily by a 12.7-percent decrease in the index for eggs, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 1.6% in April after rising in recent months. The fruits and vegetables index decreased 0.4% over the month and the cereals and bakery products index declined 0.5%.
The index for other food at home decreased 0.1% in April and the index for dairy and related products fell 0.2%. In contrast, the nonalcoholic beverages index increased 0.7% over the month.
The food away from home index rose 0.4% in April. The index for full service meals rose 0.6% over the month and the index for limited service meals rose 0.3%.
The index for food at home rose 2.0% over the last 12 months. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 7.0% over the last 12 months as the eggs index increased 49.3%. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 3.2% over the same period, while the index for other food at home rose 0.7%. The dairy and related products index increased 1.6% over the 12 months ending in April. The cereals and bakery products index was unchanged over the year, while the index for fruits and vegetables decreased 0.9% over the same period.
The food away from home index rose 3.9% over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 4.3% and the index for limited service meals rose 3.4% over the same period.
Energy contributes big increase
The energy index increased 0.7% in April, after falling 2.4% in March. The index for natural gas rose 3.7% over the month and the index for electricity increased 0.8%. The gasoline index decreased 0.1% over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 2.9% in April.)
The index for energy decreased 3.7% over the past 12 months. The gasoline index fell 11.8% over this 12-month span and the fuel oil index fell 9.6% over that period. In contrast, the index for electricity increased 3.6% over the last 12 months and the index for natural gas rose 15.7%.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March. The shelter index increased 0.3% over the month. The index for owners' equivalent rent rose 0.4% in April and the index for rent increased 0.3%. The lodging away from home index fell 0.1% in April.
The medical care index increased 0.5% over the month. The index for hospital services increased 0.6% in April and the index for physicians' services rose 0.3% over the month. The prescription drugs index rose 0.4% in April.
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The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.8% over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 4.0% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.7%), motor vehicle insurance (+6.4%), education (+3.8%), and recreation (+1.6%).
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.3% over the last 12 months to an index level of 320.795 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3% prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.1% over the last 12 months to an index level of 314.243 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3% prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.1% over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.3% on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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