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US Inflation Watched Ahead of Key Fed Reserve Meeting
Failure of Consumer Price Index to Slow May Delay Interest Rate Decision
U.S. markets are closely watching the upcoming inflation numbers that could influence Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate that President Donald Trump wants eased to spur economic growth. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has been resisting demands to cut interest rates to spur economic growth on the grounds that the inflation rate has not come down to the 2% annual target.
The annual inflation rate has been hovering over 2.7% amid fears of galloping price spiral and eroding economic growth as the tariff wars hobble the global economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the retail Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for May on June 11. The index rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1% in March.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3% before seasonal adjustment spurred by an increase in shelter that rose 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7% as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index. The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1% in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4% and the food away from home index rose 0.4% over the month.
Trump’s announcement in early April of reciprocal tariffs roiled the markets amid fear of supply chain disruptions. The market have been uncertain as Tariff discussions with different countries are in various stages.
Of particular interest will be any movement of the price index of items less food and energy that rose 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March. They include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel decreased in April.
Prolonged tariff talks could trigger a price spiral and reduce Fed Reserve appetite for interest rate cuts.
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