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TrueCar Releases Analysis of September and Third Quarter Industry Sales

TrueCar Releases Analysis of September and Third Quarter Industry Sales

By AP News
Published - Sep 29, 2022, 11:14 AM ET
Last Updated - Jun 24, 2023, 05:49 AM EDT

Interest rates pose a challenge to consumers, but overall industry remains steady

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,140,659 units in September 2022, up 13% from a year ago and up 3% from August 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13.4 million, up 9% from September 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 987,378 units, up 8% from a year ago and up about 3% from August 2022.

"With increasing interest rates, affordability is being tested," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "We're seeing consumers faced with the reality that to afford the same vehicle at the same monthly payment as last year, they are forced to increase their down payment, which is creating new affordability challenges. We are paying close attention to how the industry will react to these concerns. Perhaps there will be more incentives, longer finance terms, or a combination of these."

"This month we're seeing Honda, Nissan and General Motors gaining traction from previous months' sales," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "GM has been able to capitalize on other OEMs' inability to deliver vehicles."

Additional September and Third Quarter Industry Insights (from TrueCar ):

  • Total sales for September 2022 are expected to be up 13% from a year ago when inventory levels were at their lowest and up 3% from August 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for September 2022 are expected to be up 57% from a year ago and up 5% from August 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 54% from last year and down 2% from August 2022.
  • Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and slightly down from August 2022.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be up 9% from a year ago at 13.4 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for September 2022 are expected to reach 3 million, down 11% from a year ago and down 4% from August 2022.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.9% compared to August 2022 at 5.8% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 9%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for September 2022 is about 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 71 months.
  • Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 9% from a year ago and up 1% from Q2 2022.
  • Quarterly incentive spend is down 55% from Q3 2021.

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

27,305

26,031

28,360

4.9 %

4.9 %

-3.7 %

0.1 %

Daimler

23,990

18,419

27,470

30.2 %

30.2 %

-12.7 %

-9.2 %

Ford

150,193

155,384

157,062

-3.3 %

-3.3 %

-4.4 %

-0.5 %

GM

193,391

111,046

187,277

74.2 %

74.2 %

3.3 %

7.4 %

Honda

81,035

95,716

71,461

-15.3 %

-15.3 %

13.4 %

17.9 %

Hyundai

66,567

58,667

69,437

13.5 %

13.5 %

-4.1 %

-0.3 %

Kia

63,752

52,906

66,089

20.5 %

20.5 %

-3.5 %

0.3 %

Nissan

52,068

51,182

50,151

1.7 %

1.7 %

3.8 %

8.0 %

Stellantis

126,277

130,926

127,120

-3.6 %

-3.6 %

-0.7 %

3.3 %

Subaru

49,703

42,054

50,126

18.2 %

18.2 %

-0.8 %

3.1 %

Tesla

42,959

26,291

42,837

63.4 %

63.4 %

0.3 %

4.3 %

Toyota

167,716

151,378

172,885

10.8 %

10.8 %

-3.0 %

0.9 %

Volkswagen Group

51,216

38,821

53,702

31.9 %

31.9 %

-4.6 %

-0.8 %

Industry

1,140,659

1,007,229

1,151,339

13.2 %

13.2 %

-0.9 %

3.0 %

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

24,884

24,799

26,025

0.3 %

0.3 %

-4.4 %

-0.6 %

Daimler

22,060

16,803

25,653

31.3 %

31.3 %

-14.0 %

-10.6 %

Ford

107,036

120,881

117,631

-11.5 %

-11.5 %

-9.0 %

-5.4 %

GM

161,052

100,341

154,859

60.5 %

60.5 %

4.0 %

8.2 %

Honda

78,972

95,224

69,470

-17.1 %

-17.1 %

13.7 %

18.2 %

Hyundai

64,998

57,907

68,676

12.2 %

12.2 %

-5.4 %

-1.6 %

Kia

61,789

49,662

63,890

24.4 %

24.4 %

-3.3 %

0.6 %

Nissan

44,924

45,547

41,103

-1.4 %

-1.4 %

9.3 %

13.7 %

Stellantis

97,951

106,818

101,663

-8.3 %

-8.3 %

-3.7 %

0.2 %

Subaru

48,702

41,205

48,837

18.2 %

18.2 %

-0.3 %

3.7 %

Tesla

36,881

26,291

35,893

40.3 %

40.3 %

2.8 %

6.9 %

Toyota

152,926

141,844

155,038

7.8 %

7.8 %

-1.4 %

2.6 %

Volkswagen Group

46,513

38,176

49,171

21.8 %

21.8 %

-5.4 %

-1.6 %

Industry

987,378

911,283

999,613

8.4 %

8.4 %

-1.2 %

2.7 %

Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

2,421

1,232

2,335

96.5 %

96.5 %

3.7 %

7.9 %

Daimler

1,930

1,616

1,817

19.4 %

19.4 %

6.2 %

10.5 %

Ford

43,157

34,503

39,431

25.1 %

25.1 %

9.4 %

13.8 %

GM

32,339

10,705

32,418

202.1 %

202.1 %

-0.2 %

3.7 %

Honda

2,063

492

1,991

319.1 %

319.1 %

3.6 %

7.8 %

Hyundai

1,569

760

761

106.5 %

106.5 %

106.1 %

114.4 %

Kia

1,963

3,244

2,199

-39.5 %

-39.5 %

-10.7 %

-7.1 %

Nissan

7,144

5,635

9,048

26.8 %

26.8 %

-21.0 %

-17.9 %

Stellantis

28,326

24,108

25,457

17.5 %

17.5 %

11.3 %

15.7 %

Subaru

1,001

849

1,289

17.9 %

17.9 %

-22.3 %

-19.2 %

Tesla

6,078

-

6,944



-12.5 %

-9.0 %

Toyota

14,790

9,534

17,847

55.1 %

55.1 %

-17.1 %

-13.8 %

Volkswagen Group

4,703

645

4,531

629.1 %

629.1 %

3.8 %

7.9 %

Industry

150,348

95,748

148,793

57.0 %

57.0 %

1.0 %

5.1 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

8.9 %

4.7 %

8.2 %

87.3 %

7.7 %

Daimler

8.0 %

8.8 %

6.6 %

-8.3 %

21.6 %

Ford

28.7 %

22.2 %

25.1 %

29.4 %

14.5 %

GM

16.7 %

9.6 %

17.3 %

73.5 %

-3.4 %

Honda

2.5 %

0.5 %

2.8 %

395.0 %

-8.6 %

Hyundai

2.4 %

1.3 %

1.1 %

82.0 %

115.0 %

Kia

3.1 %

6.1 %

3.3 %

-49.8 %

-7.4 %

Nissan

13.7 %

11.0 %

18.0 %

24.6 %

-23.9 %

Stellantis

22.4 %

18.4 %

20.0 %

21.8 %

12.0 %

Subaru

2.0 %

2.0 %

2.6 %

-0.2 %

-21.7 %

Tesla

14.1 %

0.0 %

16.2 %


-12.7 %

Toyota

8.8 %

6.3 %

10.3 %

40.0 %

-14.6 %

Volkswagen Group

9.2 %

1.7 %

8.4 %

452.7 %

8.8 %

Industry

13.2 %

9.5 %

12.9 %

38.7 %

2.0 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

BMW

2.4 %

2.6 %

2.5 %

Daimler

2.1 %

1.8 %

2.4 %

Ford

13.2 %

15.4 %

13.6 %

GM

17.0 %

11.0 %

16.3 %

Honda

7.1 %

9.5 %

6.2 %

Hyundai

5.8 %

5.8 %

6.0 %

Kia

5.6 %

5.3 %

5.7 %

Nissan

4.6 %

5.1 %

4.4 %

Stellantis

11.1 %

13.0 %

11.0 %

Subaru

4.4 %

4.2 %

4.4 %

Tesla

3.8 %

2.6 %

3.7 %

Toyota

14.7 %

15.0 %

15.0 %

Volkswagen Group

4.5 %

3.9 %

4.7 %


96.1 %

95.2 %

95.9 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

BMW

2.5 %

2.7 %

2.6 %

Daimler

2.2 %

1.8 %

2.6 %

Ford

10.8 %

13.3 %

11.8 %

GM

16.3 %

11.0 %

15.5 %

Honda

8.0 %

10.4 %

6.9 %

Hyundai

6.6 %

6.4 %

6.9 %

Kia

6.3 %

5.4 %

6.4 %

Nissan

4.5 %

5.0 %

4.1 %

Stellantis

9.9 %

11.7 %

10.2 %

Subaru

4.9 %

4.5 %

4.9 %

Tesla

3.7 %

2.9 %

3.6 %

Toyota

15.5 %

15.6 %

15.5 %

Volkswagen Group

4.7 %

4.2 %

4.9 %


96.1 %

95.0 %

95.8 %

ATP



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$69,596

$62,593

$66,227

11.2 %

5.1 %

Daimler

$70,723

$68,949

$67,009

2.6 %

5.5 %

Ford

$51,786

$50,827

$53,022

1.9 %

-2.3 %

GM

$51,418

$51,750

$50,965

-0.6 %

0.9 %

Honda

$38,246

$34,966

$38,695

9.4 %

-1.2 %

Hyundai

$36,907

$35,420

$36,805

4.2 %

0.3 %

Kia

$34,880

$31,816

$34,521

9.6 %

1.0 %

Nissan

$35,975

$33,942

$36,950

6.0 %

-2.6 %

Stellantis

$55,049

$49,922

$54,182

10.3 %

1.6 %

Subaru

$35,008

$33,068

$34,551

5.9 %

1.3 %

Toyota

$40,547

$39,689

$41,284

2.2 %

-1.8 %

Volkswagen Group

$45,279

$41,936

$45,070

8.0 %

0.5 %

Industry

$44,942

$42,500

$44,977

5.7 %

-0.1 %


$2,442


-$35



Incentives



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$1,047

$3,601

$1,251

-70.9 %

-16.3 %

Daimler

$1,323

$3,177

$1,407

-58.4 %

-6.0 %

Ford

$984

$2,598

$1,008

-62.1 %

-2.4 %

GM

$1,267

$2,650

$1,468

-52.2 %

-13.7 %

Honda

$898

$2,007

$890

-55.3 %

0.8 %

Hyundai

$431

$1,381

$409

-68.8 %

5.3 %

Kia

$384

$2,047

$450

-81.2 %

-14.6 %

Nissan

$1,090

$2,397

$1,391

-54.5 %

-21.6 %

Stellantis

$2,821

$3,186

$2,403

-11.5 %

17.4 %

Subaru

$453

$1,199

$492

-62.2 %

-7.8 %

Toyota

$672

$1,794

$819

-62.6 %

-18.0 %

Volkswagen Group

$1,185

$2,547

$1,249

-53.5 %

-5.1 %

Industry

$1,090

$2,347

$1,113

-53.6 %

-2.1 %


-$1,257


-$23



Incentives as % of ATP



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

1.5 %

5.8 %

1.9 %

-73.8 %

-20.3 %

Daimler

1.9 %

4.6 %

2.1 %

-59.4 %

-10.9 %

Ford

1.9 %

5.1 %

1.9 %

-62.8 %

-0.1 %

GM

2.5 %

5.1 %

2.9 %

-51.9 %

-14.4 %

Honda

2.3 %

5.7 %

2.3 %

-59.1 %

2.0 %

Hyundai

1.2 %

3.9 %

1.1 %

-70.1 %

5.1 %

Kia

1.1 %

6.4 %

1.3 %

-82.9 %

-15.5 %

Nissan

3.0 %

7.1 %

3.8 %

-57.1 %

-19.5 %

Stellantis

5.1 %

6.4 %

4.4 %

-19.7 %

15.5 %

Subaru

1.3 %

3.6 %

1.4 %

-64.3 %

-9.0 %

Toyota

1.7 %

4.5 %

2.0 %

-63.3 %

-16.5 %

Volkswagen Group

2.6 %

6.1 %

2.8 %

-56.9 %

-5.5 %

Industry

2.4 %

5.5 %

2.5 %

-56.1 %

-2.0 %

Revenue



Manufacturer

Sep 2022 Forecast

Sep 2021 Actual

Aug 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$51,263,941,149

$42,807,179,128

$51,783,670,865

19.8 %

-1.0 %

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

85,325

82,064

84,036

4.0 %

4.0 %

1.5 %

1.5 %

Daimler

81,356

63,747

88,410

27.6 %

27.6 %

-8.0 %

-8.0 %

Ford

469,984

397,644

480,558

18.2 %

18.2 %

-2.2 %

-2.2 %

GM

558,835

443,150

578,507

26.1 %

26.1 %

-3.4 %

-3.4 %

Honda

223,731

345,914

239,789

-35.3 %

-35.3 %

-6.7 %

-6.7 %

Hyundai

201,838

193,522

198,136

4.3 %

4.3 %

1.9 %

1.9 %

Kia

192,290

177,014

182,146

8.6 %

8.6 %

5.6 %

5.6 %

Nissan

152,754

198,955

183,171

-23.2 %

-23.2 %

-16.6 %

-16.6 %

Stellantis

391,081

413,311

408,040

-5.4 %

-5.4 %

-4.2 %

-4.2 %

Subaru

141,365

141,552

131,449

-0.1 %

-0.1 %

7.5 %

7.5 %

Tesla

128,609

75,631

138,895

70.0 %

70.0 %

-7.4 %

-7.4 %

Toyota

518,159

565,880

531,105

-8.4 %

-8.4 %

-2.4 %

-2.4 %

Volkswagen Group

159,419

136,650

142,893

16.7 %

16.7 %

11.6 %

11.6 %

Industry

3,437,982

3,394,029

3,518,915

1.3 %

1.3 %

-2.3 %

-2.3 %

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

77,759

101,575

78,805

-23.4 %

-23.4 %

-1.3 %

-1.3 %

Daimler

74,811

75,132

64,924

-0.4 %

-0.4 %

15.2 %

15.2 %

Ford

334,938

366,931

325,514

-8.7 %

-8.7 %

2.9 %

2.9 %

GM

465,386

599,229

403,778

-22.3 %

-22.3 %

15.3 %

15.3 %

Honda

218,036

470,440

258,883

-53.7 %

-53.7 %

-15.8 %

-15.8 %

Hyundai

197,081

228,474

169,737

-13.7 %

-13.7 %

16.1 %

16.1 %

Kia

186,369

200,746

137,801

-7.2 %

-7.2 %

35.2 %

35.2 %

Nissan

131,795

235,625

164,290

-44.1 %

-44.1 %

-19.8 %

-19.8 %

Stellantis

303,355

432,724

331,777

-29.9 %

-29.9 %

-8.6 %

-8.6 %

Subaru

138,518

157,208

128,244

-11.9 %

-11.9 %

8.0 %

8.0 %

Tesla

110,413

67,602

126,601

63.3 %

63.3 %

-12.8 %

-12.8 %

Toyota

472,465

601,027

459,059

-21.4 %

-21.4 %

2.9 %

2.9 %

Volkswagen Group

144,780

189,750

109,827

-23.7 %

-23.7 %

31.8 %

31.8 %

Industry

2,981,895

3,907,705

2,894,256

-23.7 %

-23.7 %

3.0 %

3.0 %

Total Market Share


Manufacturer

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

BMW

2.5 %

2.4 %

2.4 %

Daimler

2.4 %

1.9 %

2.5 %

Ford

13.7 %

11.7 %

13.7 %

GM

16.3 %

13.1 %

16.4 %

Honda

6.5 %

10.2 %

6.8 %

Hyundai

5.9 %

5.7 %

5.6 %

Kia

5.6 %

5.2 %

5.2 %

Nissan

4.4 %

5.9 %

5.2 %

Stellantis

11.4 %

12.2 %

11.6 %

Subaru

4.1 %

4.2 %

3.7 %

Tesla

3.7 %

2.2 %

3.9 %

Toyota

15.1 %

16.7 %

15.1 %

Volkswagen Group

4.6 %

4.0 %

4.1 %


96.1 %

95.3 %

96.3 %

Retail Market Share


Manufacturer

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

BMW

2.6 %

2.6 %

2.7 %

Daimler

2.5 %

1.9 %

2.2 %

Ford

11.2 %

9.4 %

11.2 %

GM

15.6 %

15.3 %

14.0 %

Honda

7.3 %

12.0 %

8.9 %

Hyundai

6.6 %

5.8 %

5.9 %

Kia

6.3 %

5.1 %

4.8 %

Nissan

4.4 %

6.0 %

5.7 %

Stellantis

10.2 %

11.1 %

11.5 %

Subaru

4.6 %

4.0 %

4.4 %

Tesla

3.7 %

1.7 %

4.4 %

Toyota

15.8 %

15.4 %

15.9 %

Volkswagen Group

4.9 %

4.9 %

3.8 %


95.8 %

95.4 %

95.3 %

ATP




Manufacturer

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

YoY % Change


QoQ % Change

BMW

$66,984

$60,360

$65,923

11.0 %


1.6 %

Daimler

$67,723

$67,918

$65,788

-0.3 %


2.9 %

Ford

$52,878

$50,724

$50,843

4.2 %


4.0 %

GM

$51,220

$49,290

$50,597

3.9 %


1.2 %

Honda

$38,593

$33,923

$37,315

13.8 %


3.4 %

Hyundai

$36,613

$34,461

$37,378

6.2 %


-2.0 %

Kia

$34,844

$30,979

$35,168

12.5 %


-0.9 %

Nissan

$36,334

$33,315

$36,023

9.1 %


0.9 %

Stellantis

$54,691

$49,396

$53,736

10.7 %


1.8 %

Subaru

$34,795

$33,611

$35,323

3.5 %


-1.5 %

Toyota

$40,900

$38,313

$39,925

6.8 %


2.4 %

Volkswagen Group

$45,198

$42,202

$46,644

7.1 %


-3.1 %

Industry

$45,137

$41,284

$44,665

9.3 %


1.1 %


$3,853


$472




Incentives




Manufacturer

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

YoY % Change


QoQ % Change

BMW

$1,153

$4,066

$1,207

-71.7 %


-4.5 %

Daimler

$1,337

$3,484

$1,298

-61.6 %


3.0 %

Ford

$1,012

$2,475

$1,191

-59.1 %


-15.0 %

GM

$1,455

$3,125

$1,754

-53.5 %


-17.1 %

Honda

$819

$2,059

$816

-60.2 %


0.4 %

Hyundai

$444

$1,576

$605

-71.8 %


-26.6 %

Kia

$475

$2,338

$635

-79.7 %


-25.2 %

Nissan

$1,227

$2,366

$1,448

-48.2 %


-15.3 %

Stellantis

$2,378

$3,022

$1,905

-21.3 %


24.8 %

Subaru

$574

$1,293

$746

-55.6 %


-23.0 %

Toyota

$749

$1,941

$794

-61.4 %


-5.7 %

Volkswagen Group

$1,177

$2,793

$1,185

-57.9 %


-0.6 %

Industry

$1,101

$2,469

$1,205

-55.4 %


-8.6 %


-$1,368


-$103




(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.

View original content to download multimedia: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-releases-analysis-of-september-and-third-quarter-industry-sales-301636402.html

SOURCE TrueCar.com

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